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Friday, 30 September 2011

Saints looking for heavenly result against Hornets

It's certainly been a full week of football action with a full round of Championship football & European competition throughout the week, it could be that those teams with strong squads or not competing during the week could have a little advantage come this weekend, we're looking ahead as usual to the best bets across the divisions.

(Million pound man Rickie Lambert will be hoping to lead his side to victory)

In the Championship, Southampton entertain Watford at St Marys. The Saints have taken the Championship by storm and are in pole position, winning six of their nine league matches. So far St Marys has hosted four league matches which have resulted in a perfect home record & 11 goals for the Saints. For Watford, a difficult start is no real surprise after a summer which saw them lose star players Danny Graham & Will Buckley without any real replacements plus Shaun Dyche stepping up from Assistant to Manager. We feel Dyche is still finding his feet as manager and his side's form is average in the league with only two wins in their nine games. Overall Southampton currently have the form forward players in Rickie Lambert & Adam Lallana who already share 10 league goals between them and we believe they will be far too strong for this average Watford side & provide punters with a banker for any weekend accumulators at the best price of 4/7.

In the Premier League there appears to be a standout bet on Sunday that has to be had on value grounds with Queens Park Rangers a huge 3/1 to beat Fulham at Craven Cottage. It's true that Fulham are tough to beat at home & they're unbeaten this season at the Cottage but they also haven't managed a league win yet with all 3 home games ending in draws. They travelled to Odense in Denmark just on Thursday night gaining a deserved 2-0 win with a couple of Andrew Johnson strikes but they fielded a pretty strong side & it isn't ideal to be facing a fresh & fit QPR side just 3 days later especially now the pressure is building to get a home win. We & many others have been impressed with a lot of QPR's play since they brought in players right at the end of the transfer window but at times they have lacked a cutting edge & certainly look a little weak in the striker department, DJ Campbell managed 13 in the top flight last year & could chip in with a few if he gets the game time. 3/1 for QPR to win implies they'll win one in four times this tie is played but that seems to underestimate them, alternatively for those wanting a little safer bet, bearing in mind they're playing Fulham who haven't won a league game this season, they can be backed at 15/8 to win in the draw no bet market with Stan James.

Down in League Two, we are expecting goals galore in the match between Port Vale and Rotherham. Vale Park has been the venue to see goals this season as 'The Valiants' have the best attacking record in the league at home scoring 13 but also on the flip side the 2nd worst defensive record conceding 11 goals so far. This has resulted in 24 goals this season in five league games at an average of 4.8 goals per game. Whilst on the road, Rotherham games have seen 21 goals in their five games at an average of 4.2 goals per game. Therefore we see no reason why these trends won't continue at the best price of 4/5 for over 2.5 goals and also for the more adventurous punters 21/10 is available for over 3.5 goals.

Elsewhere in the Premier League there looks to be another game that could be on the low scoring side in the Swansea City v Stoke City match. In the game in Wales' second city we have a matchup of two of the league's lesser lights who happen to have looked very solid defensively this season, it has been no surprise to see Stoke solid at the back, apart from the aberration of a 4-0 defeat to Sunderland, as they have plenty of experienced & physical defenders backed up by a top keeper in Begović. Swansea seem to have made one of the signings of the season in their unknown keeper Michel Vorm who has produced several top class performances, Àngel Rangel at the right back also deserves plenty of credit giving confidence to his centre backs. Swansea have struggled to score though apart from their 3-0 win against West Brom & Stoke's strikers don't inspire confidence with Peter Crouch having never looked like a prolific scorer & a prime example of how the current market has inflated transfer fees, on the other side of the argument is that he fits Stoke's style of play extremely well. All in all this game looks a potential candidate for being on last on Match Of The Day 2 & we're happy to pick under 2.5 goals at 4/6.


Southampton to beat Watford at 4/7 (Coral)
Over 2.5 goals in the Port Vale vs Rotherham game at 4/5 (Bet365/Blue Square) or Over 3.5 goals at 21/10 (William Hill)
QPR to beat Fulham at 3/1 (General) and/or to win draw no bet at 15/8 (Stan James)
Under 2.5 goals in the Swansea City vs Stoke City game at 4/6 (Stan James/Blue Square)

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