Euro 2012 Final - Pirouhetting Pirlo can put Finishing Touches to Italian Campaign

Euro 2012 has been outstanding throughout & arguably the best international tournament of the last 20 or so years with plenty of teams being competitive & some star performances from individual players, the final is between reigning champions Spain & 1968 winners Italy. Both sides are worthy finalists & it's interesting to see how they'll matchup after having played each other in their Group C opener exactly 3 weeks ago.

(Andrea Pirlo (centre) can lead Italy to Euro glory)

In their group game it was Italy that at first looked outright more likely to score than Spain after Del Bosque decided to start with 6 in midfield & no striker, Spain looked a little toothless at times & it was Italy who made the breakthrough after the misfiring Balotelli was replaced by Di Natale who made a near instant impact with a goal. Spain bounced straight back that day with a typically incisive goal from the classy Cesc Fabregas & afterwards looked slightly the more likely team once Jesus Navas & Fernando Torres were on the pitch, fortunately for Italy, Torres was completely out of sorts in front of goal & missed or messed up several presentable chances.

A lack of goals & clear scoring opportunities is affecting Spain now they are without the first choice David Villa, Torres isn't half the player he once was & playing 6"5 striker Fernando Llorente appears to be anathema to boss Del Bosque, even though he's a very technically competent footballer. Down the right hand side of the Spain shape Xavi & David Silva haven't quite had the success you'd expect from such talented players although it looks like both will almost certainly retain their spots & are clearly capable of harming Italy if they play to their potential. Of course Spain don't need to be scoring by the bucketload to win as they have the meanest defence in football & the only goal they've conceded this tournament was that one from Di Natale, possession & retention of the ball helps & even when they lose it they have an outstanding keeper in Iker Cassilas who is protected by Ramos & Barcelona's bargain of the century Gerard Pique (re-signed from Man Utd for a measly £5m!).

(Spain's Gerard Pique & Iker Cassillas are just about the best stopper/defender combination around)

Italy haven't been setting the tournament alight with plenty of goals themselves, they have been able to create chances but Cassano & Balotelli (up to the last game at least) haven't always been clinical & certainly against England especially the whole team seemed to lack composure in front of goal. That being said they looked outstanding against Germany & completely outclassed England, even though they couldn't score, & the momentum looks to be with them especially as Spain just had to play the full 120 minutes against Portugal, somewhat offsetting their extra rest day advantage. The hope for Italy, & worry for Spain, is that now Balotelli has got himself fired up that he won't be missing some of the chances he was earlier in the tournament, hopefully he'll try to play on the defender's shoulder & stretch the field a little for Italy as that will mean Andrea Pirlo can do his inimitable thing.

Pirlo has been this tournament's standout star & with Cristiano Ronaldo failing to sparkle in the semi final he's now odds on to pick up the Player of the Tournament prize (tipped at 80/1 here), his passing & overall control of the game has been instrumental to Italy's progression but his fellow midfielders have been excellent too. Daniele de Rossi has shown some great movement & work rate & filled in ably at the back in the first two games,Claudio Marchisio has been consistently good all through the tournament & since coming into the side for the knockout games Riccardo Montolivo has added an extra element of trickery & pinpoint passing to the attack. Although Antonio Cassano hasn't, understandably, been able to last out a full 90 minutes in any game so far his movement, touch & general attacking intent have been crucial & he always seems to be available for a pass from his midfielders.

Italy haven't been bad at all at the back either with only 3 goals conceded, & even though he wasn't always conventional at times against Germany, Gianluigi Buffon showed why he, along with opposite number Cassilas, is still a significant step up from any of the up & coming young keepers. We really like Giorgio Chiellini & he was versatile to move out to left back in the last game & provide real threat going forwards against Spain, that moved Balzaretti to right back but he looked just as comfortable there & has been improving throughout the tournament & could give Jordi Alba some real problems if & when Italy break on Spain.

(Antonio Cassano overpriced at 12/1 to score first?)

We mentioned that the full back positions looked to be maybe Spain's one area of weakness before the Portugal game but they countered that against Ronaldo & co by playing pretty much a containing game throughout & Arbeloa & Alba weren't left exposed against the Portuguese pace too often. Arbeloa is surely the worst player in the Spain starting eleven by some way & although we know he's good we haven't always been totally convinced by Alba here, of course they've still played fine (as one goal conceded shows) but they maybe don't quite match up to the rest of Spain's high standards.

In terms of form it might just be Italy that have the edge, they totally outclassed England & only some desperate defending & woodwork stopped them scoring & then they were blistering against Germany with Mario Balotelli coming to life with two good goals. Spain didn't have to be anywhere near their best to beat a shambolic France team & then huffed & puffed against Portugal & you'd say were outplayed in the first half, Italy were better in that opener two, certainly in the first half & that will give a lot of confidence to the betting underdogs.

The problem with beating Spain is simply that they are the ultimate 'hard to beat' team, they control possession & concede so few goals that the best most sides can hope for is a draw, we know all of this yet still find ourselves believing that Italy are the ones to burst Spain's bubble & we reckon they can do it inside 90 minutes at odds of 29/10. Italy have played overall just a bit better than Spain going forward even though they've scored two less, they've hit the woodwork a couple of times & 4 of Spain's goals came against dire Ireland. All the talk will be of Balotelli & that means that we think a bit of value can be found with Antonio Cassano to be first scorer at 12/1, it would be a fairytale story after Cassano's serious health problems but is thoroughly possible & with so much defensive focus on 'Super' Mario he may be the one to find the chances. If Italy are to win the game, even in extra time or penalties, you'd have to make Andrea Pirlo a big favourite to be Man of the Match & odds of 5/1 look fair, it would be a fitting end to an outstanding display of technique & effectiveness throughout the tournament from Italy's Architect.

Selections:
Italy to beat Spain in 90 minutes at 29/10 (BetVictor)
Antonio Cassano to score first at 12/1 (BetVictor & William Hill)
Andrea Pirlo to be Man of the Match at 5/1 (Various)

Michelangelo to deliver a Masterstroke

After Royal Ascot started out so promisingly for us the week turned horrible as several Aidan O'Brien horses ran well below form, particularly Astrology that had his rivals well & truly beat on form in the King Edward VII but couldn't raise a gallop in the last two furlongs. We're looking to bounce back as we go onwards & into the main part of the flat racing season, there are some nice races this Saturday including the Irish Derby, being staged at 7.40pm, & we've found some horses at fair odds to get on.

(Michelangelo getting on top in the Cocked Hat Stakes)

We're real fans of John Gosden's exciting colt Michelangelo & backed it heavily last time when winning a Listed race at Goodwood on only his second start, with Samitar & Rougemont out of this Newmarket race it looks Michelangelo's for the taking. Trainer & rider combination John Gosden & William Buick were in outstanding form at Royal Ascot & Michelangelo has the best form on offer in the race, the one worry is the step back 1 furlong from 1m3f as Michelangelo has a stout pedigree & looks like he could stay at least another 2 furlongs & that was shown when reeling in the front running Expense Claim last time. We wouldn't be surprised to see a much faster start for Michelangelo this time & Buick try to make the running, Newmarket can be a little bit of a test & that would play into this one's hooves, at 10/11 Michelangelo should be backed to win the valuable sales race at 2.00pm.

(Arctic is a sprinter back on the upgrade)

Over in Ireland before the Irish Derby & the return of potential superstar Camelot there is an interesting sprint & with ground conditions in his favour we think that Arctic can follow up its easy win two weeks ago at Navan. Tracey Collins 5 year old gelding is lightly raced with only 12 runs behind him & was excellent at two where he won his first three races including beating crack sprinter Sole Power by 5 lengths in a Listed race & then following up with a wide margin win in a Group/ His win at Navan was his first since that first season but the signs were there to back him as the ground was really soft & was running in handicap company off a mark 20 pounds lower than he'd been rated at when at the top of his game. Arctic has been raised 8 pounds for the Navan win but that looks fair enough & if coming back to form he'll take some stopping as he's a high cruising speed, the one to challenge could be Bertiewhittle but David Barron's decent handicapper let supporters down when well backed at Newbury on Lockinge day & we would rather avoid. At a standout 10/1 with Ladbrokes we think Arctic is nailed on for at least a place & could win this before stepping back up to Listed & Group company.

(Hoof It can power home under Frankie Dettori at Newmarket)

In the Criterion Stakes at Newmarket you can get odds of 2/1 about Hoof It & we reckon that is pretty much a bet of whether he'll get 7 furlongs or not as Mick Easterby's sprinter is a Group One performer (at least in British sprinting) & should pick these rivals up & spit them out. Libranno bounced back to form in a Listed contest at Salisbury last time but the field ended up in a heap at the finish there so the form mightn't be great. Firebeam is Hoof it's chief rival in the betting here but we think its rating of 111 is overestimating just how good William Haggas's gelding is, it comes courtesy of running Red Jazz close last time but that rival was always just about holding him & hasn't run too smartly since anyway. Hoof It won two large field handicaps in taking fashion last year before running creditably in the Group One Nunthorpe & then being very unluckily touched off in a close finish in the Betfred Sprint Cup by the UK's top two sprinters in Dream Ahead & Bated Breath. Hoof It will have to put a somewhat disappointing run in the Temple Stakes behind him but that was its comeback run, he looks such a powerful horse that we think he'll now be able to last out 7 furlongs & frankie Dettori is the right jockey to deliver him at the right time.

Selections:
Newmarket 2.00 - Michelangelo to win at 10/11 (general)
Newmarket 3.35 - Hoof It to win at 2/1 (PaddyPower & Stan James)
Curragh 5.55 - Arctic each way at 10/1 (Ladbrokes)

Euro 2012 2nd Semi Final - Die Mannschaft to give Azzurri the Blues

The second semi final takes place at the National Stadium, Warsaw between our pre-tournament outright pick Germany and England's conquerors Italy. In their respective quarter finals the Germans easily overcame Greece 4-2 whilst Italy dominated an unambitious & technically deficient England side but could only muster victory via a penalty shootout.



(Mario Gomez could return to the starting lineup to feed off the excellent service of Mesut Ozil)

Coach Joachim Low guided his side to a record breaking 15th successive competitive win despite resting the attacking trio of Thomas Muller, Mario Gomez & Lukas Podolski in their quarter final match & gave exciting youngsters Andre Schurrle & Marco Reus and the evergreen Miroslav Klose game time after their limited involvement in the group phrase. Not only did it provide the usual starters a prolonged period of rest but the two youngsters were excellent & Klose popped up with a goal so provides Low with confident attacking options from the bench if needed. There are plenty of calls for all three quarter final attackers to keep their spots & we were hugely impressed with Reus especially - if he's equally effective on the left of attack he could easily nick Lukas Podolski's place in the starting eleven. If Reus does start we think he's a cracking bet to open the scoring at 9/1 & is worth a punt, if he doesn't start & there's a goal before he gets on the pitch you'll get your stake back anyway.

Italy dominated quarter finalists England in every department Sunday night but it doesn't hide the fact they didn't manage to find a breakthrough, they may have hit the woodwork twice & registered nearly twenty attempts on target but none were more than regulation saves for England keeper Joe Hart (who also pulled off one of his now trademark knockdowns straight to an attacker). It means that Italy have only scored one goal in ten games from open play & strikers Mario Balotelli, Antonio Cassano & Antonio Di Natale should find the chances much harder to come by against Germany.



(Stop Andrea Pirlo....... stop Italy?)

Italy do have one of the standout players of the tournament so far in playmaker Andrea Pirlo (tipped here at 80/1 for the player of the tournament title) - it seems unbelievable that Milan released him on a free transfer last summer; a decision which backfired when he guided rivals Juventus to the title last season & he's continued his fine form here. Pirlo has an intriguing battle ahead with the excellent combination of Sami Khedira & Bastian Schweinsteiger looking to stop him pulling the strings for the Italians - if they can, which will be far from easy, then you fear for the Italians in a creative sense & it could spell the end of their championship run.

A changed German side have had virtually a whole week off since their quarter final whilst Italy have had to contend with extra time & penalties two days later. Freshness is with the Germans & Italy also have to cope with a number of muscle injuries to defenders Ignazio Abate & Giorgio Chiellini and Roma's midfielder Daniele De Rossi - it remains to be seen which players recover in time for the game. Italy will also have wing back Christian Maggio suspended for the game which further limits their options, Germany's talisman Bastian Schweinsteiger is a slight injury worry again but he should be ready. Germany seem to have that bit more quality in terms of goal threats throughout the side so take advantage of the general 10/11 on offer for them to beat the Azzurri in 90 minutes & make the final.

Selections:

Germany to beat Italy at 10/11 (various)
Marco Reus to score first at9/1 (Bet365, BetVictor & Stan James)

1st Euro 2012 Semi Final - Primed Portugal can Spank Spain

We'll get to see a real clash of styles on Wednesday night as Portugal's lightning quick, direct & attacking team come up against the last half a decade's dominant football force of the 'Barcelona style' of patient, possession football played by Spain. It should be a really fascinating game & it remains to be seen whether Spain's Iberian rivals are the ones to eventually topple them & stop them winning their third major tournament in a row.

(Portugal can gain some success against Spain starting building with their classy central defenders)

Neither side had tough quarter fnals, with Portugal outclassing the Czech Republic & eventually breaking through late on after numerous near misses earlier in the game. Spain meanwhile could hardly have had an easier game against France with the French seemingly having imploded again before the game & giving a listless display - it was disappointing as Spain don't quite looked to have hit their usual heights & a fully firing France should have given them at least something to think about.

For all their quality Spain really haven't created too many clear cut chances in their games but because they are defensively sound & control the ball so well they don't need to score many as it's difficult to see them conceding often. If you were to pinpoint a defensive weakness it would be Alvaro Arbeloa at right back though & that just happens to be the key position when trying to stop the unstoppable Cristiano Ronaldo - he has been quite brilliant in the last two games & will have plenty of happy thoughts lining up against Spanish players - after all he finds it pretty easy to score against them in his day job at Real Madrid. Ronaldo may be arrogant & seem selfish but you can tell that he really does inspire his team mates around him & there is an awful lot of quality throughout the Portugal team other than their traditional problem position at striker. Portugal have struggled at point ever since record scorer Pauleta retired in 2006, Hugo Almeida will likely play up front but his role will be to hold the ball up & bring others into play more than trying to score himself. If Spain do concentrate on trying to stop Ronaldo specifically (which they may not as they could simply stick to their ideals) they could allow quality passers Meireles & Moutinho to pick out some killer balls.

(Manchester City's golden boy David Silva hasn't fully impressed us this tournament)

Portugal have looked good defensively & the goals they've conceded aren't the kind of ones they should worry about doing so again with the way Spain play,  the two against Denmark were down to not being able to deal with Nicklas Bendtner & the goal against Germany was similar in not coping with Gomez's presence whilst Van der Vaart's goal for Holland was a stunning strike. Other than in the air Portugal have looked slightly weak with balls in behind as Bruno Alves has looked sluggish & the keeper Patricio while competent is certainly the weakest starting keeper left in the competition by a very long way.

We all know Spain's strengths, they play the ultimate team game as they don't rely on any one position or player & don't seem to need everyone to be on their game to be able to pull off the results but we weren't impressed with them against the Italians in the first game or going forwards against Croatia in the last group game. France were so bad it was embarrassing & Vicente del Bosque's men will need to step up to justify their current odds on price to win in 90 minutes especially as his sdie have had two less rest days than Portugal. We prefer the look of Portugal at decent odds & we think they can get off to a flying start with their explosive game, odds of 17/2 for Portugal to be winning at half time & full time are pretty generous & don't require a big outlay for a sizeable return. The Man of the Match market also offers a little value because if Portugal can win Ronaldo seems locked in for the prize & backing him at 6/1 is better than Portugal at 7/2 - he could even get it if the game ends up going to extra time so looks a real value bet.

Selections:
Portugal to beat Spain at half time & full time at 17/2 (BetVictor & 188Bet)
Cristiano Ronaldo to be Man of the Match at 6/1 (Various)

Quarter Final Four - Insert Lazy Italian Job Headline here

England & Italy meet in the last of the quarter finals fighting it out for the 'privilege' of facing Germany in the semi final, neither side will have given that match too much thought yet as their concentration will be solely on this game & it looks like being a difficult one to call either way.

(Mario Balotelli - when he's good he's very very good but when he's bad he is horrid!)

England have seemingly already exceeded expectations at home by qualifying at the top of their group ahead of France & although they haven't looked technically great they have looked well disciplined & resolute & have been succeeding with a real team effort. Steven Gerrard has to be considered the standout performer in the tournament for England going forwards with some outstanding deliveries & he seems to relish his role as captain, he's certainly the type of player that others can rally around & arguably should have had the captaincy before now. At the back although Chelsea performers John Terry & Ashley Cole have been receiving the plaudits (Terry does play with a certain exuberance with goal line clearances etc.) we think that Joleon Lescott has been rocksteady, just like he was for Man City all year, & it's that base that they can work with for some real solidity.

Italy have been pretty solid at the back themselves, conceding just twice in 1-1 draws with Spain & Croatia & they are two good sides so there was little disgrace there - they are going to be without their robust defender Giorgio Chiellini though & it will be interesting to see how they set up without him. Daniele De Rossi could fall back into the centre of a three man defence just as they played in the first two games & he did perform very creditably in that role. The worry with De Rossi in defence is that he won't necessarily cope with a big physical striker up against him & that must make Hodgson tempted to play footballing Neanderthal Andy Carroll as his front man. Italy did not look weakened in central midfield without De Rossi in those first two games with the technical excellence of Motta, Marchisio & the outstanding so far Andrea Pirlo helping them to control possession & look for openings. It will be fascinating to see those three go up against England's more rough & ragged, but extremely hardworking Gerrard & Parker, James Milner will be looking to get narrow when his support is needed too.

(England's hopes are resting on you Mr Rooney - perform!)

For England it seems that all hopes rest with the near mythical Wayne Rooney, on his day Rooney can be up there with some of the best in the world but we feel he's essentially a streaky player who goes through very good periods & then some very poor periods rather than being consistently great. Rooney's touch looked bad at times against Ukraine & he was more reminiscent of the player who toiled so badly at World Cup 2010 than the one who has terrorised Premier League defences for the last couple of seasons, he did get his goal though & England fans will hope he can kick on from that. Rooney has been considered slightly temperamental at times & that certainly caused him to be banned for the first two games, he did only pick up three yellows all season for Man United & looks to have calmed a little - the same cannot be said for the enigmatic Mario Balotelli.

Reports suggest that Balotelli is going to be recalled to the starting lineup after his late, very good, goal to wrap up the win against Ireland, he's an outstanding talent & will know any weaknesses in Joe Hart's or Joleon Lescott's paly that could be exploited. We don't seem to be able to find the stats up to the end of the season but in April Balotelli was leading the league in goals per minute played & that doesn't surprise as his accuracy is second to none with him seemingly able to place the ball in the corners of the net at will. Of course Balotelli is what is officially known as 'a lunatic' & there's a theory that England players will look to wind him up but it will have been drilled into him that the best way to respond is with goals & at 8/1 Balotelli's value to bag the first of the game.

So far in the tournament there have been five 1-1 results & these two sides have been in matches accounting for three of those & the way that they set out it does make a similar result to that quite likely with their disciplined defensive setups but still with quality forwards, at odds of 11/2 backing the 1-1 correct score is a play. Even if Italy can score first England seem to have a never say die attitude & have the ability with their deliveries in the box to bounce back, if it goes the other way & England can make a breakthrough they have looked vulnerable with a lead in all three games & could easily concede.

Selections:

1-1 Correct Score at 11/2 (various)

Mario Balotelli to score first at 8/1 (various) + scorecast Balotelli 1-1 at 35/1+

Euro 2012 Quarter Final Three - France & Spain to keep it tight

Saturday sees the third quarter final & it's probably just about the pick of the bunch with the world's number one team Spain taking on close neighbours France in a matchup of two of the best technical teams in the tournament. Ronaldo & Portugal did the business for us in the first quarter final but Germany lost concentration & couldn't win to nil against Greece - we're trying to find more success in this game & Italy v England on Sunday.

(Iniesta has been Spain's star man so far)

Neither France or Spain have played up to their form in the tournament up to this game with Italy looking more dangerous in Spain's opener & they also looked ponderous against Croatia, France huffed & puffed against England & then threw in an aberration of a performance against Sweden & ended up losing 2-0.

France just haven't looked to have enough of a cutting edge, Benzema has played well but has too often been facing away from goal in an attempt to bring his midfielders into play. Franck Ribery hasn't done enough for us especially with his considerable talent & France don't seem to be able to decide who should be their wide right player with Nasri, Menez & Ben Arfa starting there in the first three games respectively. Too often the French have had to rely on distance shooting, which is odd considering the intricacy they can play with, & that doesn't bode well against the excellent shot stopper that is Iker Casillas in Spain's goal.

Spain have hardly been sparkling going forward either, we can't give the Ireland game too much weight because Ireland were so bad, they had no point of attack against Italy & didn't create anywhere near enough against Croatia. Spain do look better when Iniesta gets on the ball with him looking to release it & then make runs behind the defence & he could do well against the French defence that will be missing the suspended Philippe Mexes at centre back.

(Franck Ribery has somewhat underperformed for France & needs to step up his game)

France haven't looked all that convincing in defence other than at right back where Debuchy has really announced himself as a smart prospect, their central defenders have looked a little one paced  indecisive at times & Gael Clichy coming in to replace Evra really hasn't helped at left back - Sweden seemed to have identified him as a weak link & attacked regularly down that side. Spain however have conceded the least goals in the tournament, keeping clean sheets in their last two & gaining their trademark 1-0 win last time out, with Casillas in goal they are tough to score against & they keep possession so well opposing teams get few chances against them.

We can see this being a really tight affair & there is some value to be had backing under 1.5 goals at 2/1 with Ladbrokes & Stan James as this could easily end up being settled by a single goal, we prefer to take Spain to win 1-0 though just as they did in the three knockout games leading up to final of the World Cup, the bet is available at 11/2. We don't feel that Spain have been at their best but feel that France mightn't be the right type of team to beat them at this stage although a semi final against Portugal could be a different story.......

Selection:
Spain to win 1-0 at 11/2 (BetVictor & Ladbrokes)