NFL Week 16 - Christmas can come early for strong home teams

It's the 2nd last round of games in the NFL regular season & we've got our preview & best bets for this group of games as usual, we were let down by the Titans last Sunday but the New England Patriots did us proud by taking apart the Broncos & Tim Tebow, that's where we're starting this week with the Christmas Eve games.

 (Big man Vince Wilfork will be coming after the Dolphins on nearly every play)

The Miami Dolphins are hugely improved after losing their first 7 games & in general looking useless at the same time, they've won 5 out of 7 since then but those wins have come agaainst some pretty ordinary outfits including the sliding Buffalo Bills twice, they'll find things a whole lot tougher against the New England Patriots. The Patriots have lost just 3 times this year & have won their last 6 putting up large point totals, they have one of the worst pass defenses in the league with an atrocious secondary that they will want to upgrade in the off-season but the offense is doing more than enough to get the job done. 'Mr Perfect' Tom Brady is just about on course to break Dan Marino's single season passing yards record & will be looking to put up big numbers against the Dolphins' 25th ranked pass defense, as usual he'll target his tight ends Rob Gronkowski & Aaron Hernandez as well as top receiver Wes Welker, we'd have thought they'll be putting up over 30 points in this one. The Dolphins have done extremely well in terms of points conceded but did let the Bills score 23 last week & the Eagles 26 the week before, their schedule has been fairly easy all year & although they've improved we've still been unimpressed especially on the offense other than the rejuvenated Reggie Bush at running back. Matt Moore never managed to establish himself at Carolina & they're now showing what they can do on offense with outstanding rookie Cam Newton as passer, he'll struggle to exploit the Patriots poor pass defense, he has an outstanding receiver in Brandon Marshall but very little else of note in the receiving corps. The Dolphins have only scored more than 30 points 3 times this year & for that reason we're happy to take the Patriots with a -9.5 point handicap, that's just a touchdown & a field goal the Patriots need to win by & they're pretty formidable here in Foxborough.

(The No.1 ranked Steelers defense can ensure this is a low scoring encounter)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are still fighting it out with the Baltimore Ravens over who will be top dog in the AFC North & they'll be pleased to be up against just about the league's worst team in the St. Louis Rams this week as they aim to win out. The key to this game is that Pittsburgh are likely to rest quarterback Ben Roethlisberger now until the playoffs as he's played large parts of the season with various injuries & the won't want to aggravate his current high ankle sprain any more, that means the Steelers wil likely run the ball much more often than usual & the clock will continue to run meaning less scoring opportunities. 3 of the Steelers last 4 games have had 23 or less points in them, the Rams have had only 2 of their last 7 games go over 40 points as they tend to struggle to put up any points at all & it won't be any easier against the league's best defense. Basically this game looks like it could be one of the lowest scoring of the year & the points line being set at 37.5 is too high & under should be backed.

 (Cedric Benson can gain some yards on the ground for the Bengals)

Finally the Arizona Cardinals take on the Cincinnati Bengals & their dream rookie receiver/quarterback partnership of A.J. Green & Andy Dalton but even though the Cardinals have won 6 of their last 7 they won't have it their own way here in Ohio. 4 of those wins for the Cardinals were at home & one was against the dreadful Rams & the other came against the underperforming Eagles, they are pretty solid defensively but haven't scored more than 28 points all season & that was in the 1st game. The Bengals aren't particularly high scorers either but have done the business in every game they'd have been expected to leading to them holding an 8 & 6 record even though they are in a division with the Steelers & Ravens. The Bengals are also good at defending the run & that's where the Cardinals' offensive strength lies with Beanie Wells tending to rush hard & often, if the Bengals can take that away then there's little to worry about with their QB Skelton even though he has Larry 'Inspector Gadget Arms' Fitzgerald to pass to. At home the advantage definitely lies with the Bengals & they can win this at reasonable odds of 1/2 with Skybet.

Selections:
New England Patriots to beat Miami Dolphins with -9.5 points at 10/11 (general)
St.Louis Rams v Pittsburgh Steelers to be under 37.5 Total Points at 10/11 (general)
Cincinnati Bengals to beat Arizona Cardinals at 1/2 (Skybet)

NFL Thursday - Texans continue to run to Super Bowl

This Thursday night game sees a divisional game in the AFC South between the Indianapolis Colts who've won the division 7 times in 8 years against the Houston Texans who've never even made the playoffs until this year. In their short existence the Texans have never won a game here in Indianapolis but this has to be their best ever chance as the Colts have won just once all year & the Texans have the league's 2nd best defense up against Indianapolis's 2nd worst in the league offense. The only positive for the Colts is that they won last time out to avoid going winless but that was thanks to playing against the Titans who insisted on playing quarterback Matt Hasselbeck even though he was injured, they paid the price as he put in his worst performance of the season to hand the Colts the win.

 (Double Trouble - the Texans' rushers Ben Tate & Arian Foster can terrorise the Colts defense)

We were wholly against the Colts on Sunday & although we were wrong there that was a freak performance with the Titans putting in an abject display & the Texans really are starting to become an excellent team. Houston have missed arguably the league's best receiver in Andre Johnson for virtually the whole season, their defensive star Mario Williams for the year & first choice quarterback Matt Schaub from week 10 as well as his backup Matt Leinart - they've still powered on thanks to some excellent defensive schemes, their ace running game (ranked 2nd) & rookies stepping up to the mark with J.J. Watt being great in defense & T.J. Yates doing a stellar job at quarterback. The Colts are ranked 28th at defending the run  they shouldn't be able to cope with superstar running back Arian Foster especially with his game being backed up by Ben Tate who's making his first active seaosn in the NFL, after being injured during his rookie year, a memorable one with 846 rushing yards at a very nice average of 5.5 yards a time. Even more crucial to the win will be the Texans defense, they've been excellent so far & should have little trouble with the Colts third string QB Dan Orlovsky who threw for a paltry 82 yards in that win against Tennessee, running back Donald Brown had a career high game but that was helped by some awful missed tackles that let him score an 80 yard touchdown run - those tackles would not have been missed by the organised Texans defense.

(Dan Orlovsky & the mediocre Colts' offense will give the great Texans defense little to worry about)

Looking at the game overall it seems as though the Texans should have no problem shutting down the Colts' offense, before last week's loss to the high scoring Panthers they hadn't let any team score more than 19 points in their last 7 games & the 10/11 on offer for the toothless Colts to score under 17 points is an outstanding bet. Both sides will run the ball a lot meaning the clock will keep ticking & the total points at 40 looks a shade on the high side, 5 of the Colts last 7 have been 40 points or under & 3 of the Texans last 4 (since Schaub was injured) have been under with the only one going over being 41 points, take under 40 total points at 10/11. We really would be shocked to see this being a high scoring encounter but we still like the look of the Texans, rather than taking the short odds for them to win we think a small bet on them to win by 1-6 points at 4/1 offers some real value, they'll eb happy to keep sneaking them & keeping towards the top of the playoff seedings where we then hope they can bring in our 25/1 pre-season tip.

Selections:
Houston Texans to beat Indianapolis Colts by 1-6 points at 4/1 (Stan James)
Total Indianapolis points to be under 17 at 10/11 (general)
Total game points to be under 40 at 10/11 (general)

Arsenal to have too many guns for Villa

This week sees the start of the festive fixtures with teams playing four games in a short period of time. Squads will be stretched to the limit & vital points will be up for grabs as teams look to gain advantage over each other. As usual with have searched through the fixtures & have selected our best bets.

(Leading from the back is Arsenal's Thomas Vermaelen - 25/1 first goalscorer chance)

Wednesday night sees, Aston Villa entertain Arsenal at Villa Park, Arsenal sit in 5th position currently and face at battle to regain Champions League football next season with Spurs, Chelsea & Liverpool. Their current form reads six wins from eight league games with only one defeat away to league leaders Man City 1-0 on Sunday. Alex Song is suspended after picking up his 5th yellow card of the season, meaning it's between impressive youngsters Francis Coquelin or Emmanuel Frimpong to place him & provide the defensive cover to allow the other midfielders to provide the attacking support to the red hot Robin van Persie. Away from home Arsenal have scored 17 goals in their eight matches; of which 11 have come in their last four games. Hosts Aston Villa are struggling at the moment with only two wins in their last nine league games & after a 2-0 defeat to Liverpool the home faithful seem to be getting frustrated & restless with the manager & team. They created very little on the attacking front & this has been the story recently with only two goals scored (both against Bolton) in their last five league matches. Now Emile Heskey has joined Chris Herd, Darren Bent & Shay Given on the sidelines for the game and we feel that Arsenal will easily outscore Aston Villa & win at a best price of 3/4 with Paddy Power.

(Outstanding attacking midfielder Rafael van der Vaart can help ensure this is a high scoring game)

The standout match of the week comes from White Hart Lane with the London Derby between Tottenham Hotspurs and Chelsea. Currently they sit 3rd & 4th respectively and 3 points will keep both sides title aspirations alive. Spurs have won seven of their last eight league games but laboured to victory over Sunderland last weekend. Aaron Lennon misses out with a torn hamstring which means Harry Redknapp can either shift Rafael van der Vaart out wide or bring in fringe players Niko Kranjcar or Steven Pienaar. Chelsea are on a good run of form themselves with four wins in their last five league games including inflicting a first defeat of the season on table toppers Man City. Andre Villas-Boas has settled on a front three of Didier Drogba, Juan Mata & Daniel Sturridge which seems to be paying dividends with them all scoring in recent games. Finding a winner is difficult but we will be backing over 2.5 goals in the game at 10/11 on Betfair currently. As Spurs have scored in all but one of their games this season & they have seen an average of 3.29 goals at home after 23 goals in seven matches. Whilst Chelsea have only failed to hit the net twice in 16 games & average 2.50 goals in their away games.

(Speedball Royston Drenthe will hope to have an impact for Everton against Swansea)

For our final selection we're looking for trends to continue in the Everton v Swansea City game & it to be another low scoring affair, Everton have just 8 goals in 8 home games & Swansea have just 6 goals in their 8 away games. Swansea have failed to win away from home & for some reason even their defence has been weak away & they've conceded 18 times, we don't like the look of them scoring here as Everton have an excellent defence led by Phil Jagielka & the underrated Tim Howard between the sticks, but the Toffees really lack the fire power to put many it at the other end. It's tempting to for under 2.5 goals but the price is short enough & we're keener on backing Everton to win 1-0 or 2-0, both at odds of 6/1 to give an overall price of 5/2.

Selections:
Arsenal to beat Aston Villa at 3/4 (Paddy Power)
Over 2.5 goals in the Tottenham Hotspur vs Chelsea game at 10/11 (Betfair)
The above double pays 2.34 / 1

Everton to beat Swansea City 1-0 or 2-0 at combined odds of 5/2 (Betfred, Totesport & Ladbrokes)

20,000 Premier League goal...Who will score it?

Prior to the first festive kick off's at Ewood Park and Molineux the Premier League is 18 goals short its landmark 20,000th goal. Bookmakers are offering odds on which team and player will net the historic goal, we're never shy of sharing our thoughts on some of the more 'quirky' markets; below is what we'll be backing, all for a bit of fun.

With Blackburn entertaining (!) Bolton and Norwich visiting Wolves tonight it's highly unlikely any of these sides and therefore players will be able to score the goal, similarly Spurs and Chelsea face one another on Thursday so are unlikley, unless there is a very low scoring round of matches, to have the ability to bag the goal. Therefore we're concentrating on Wednesday's games to find our picks.

We appreciate that the division's top sides are likely to wade in with the most goals however as timing is the key we think there is some decent value in some of the outsiders in the market, Martin O'Neill's Sunderland travel to QPR who have leaked 28 goals this term and we think The Mackems should be able to breach the Hoops' defence, Sunderland can be backed at 18/1 to net the landmark, if they do so look no further than se piece taker Sebastian Larsson who is available at a huge 150/1. West Brom travel to the North East to take on 7th placed Newcastle United, although the Magpies have only conceded 8 at home to date we think Hodgson's men have enough to cause the Toon Army problems, the Midland's outfit can be backed at 22/1 to be the side to score the 20,000th goal. Irishman Shane Long the most likely to do so if it is to be the Baggies, he's available at 80/1. Liverpool are our final pick at 7/1, the Merseysiders play Wigan at the JJB and we think that Charlie Adam is overdue a goal and can be backed at 66/1, the Scot is now on penalty duty which only adds weight to his claims.

Selections

Sunderland to score the 20,000 Premier League Goal at 18/1 (Paddy Power)
West Bromwich Albion to score the 20,000 Premier League Goal at 22/1 (Paddy Power)
Liverpool to score the 20,000 Premier League Goal at 7/1 (Totesport)
Sebastian Larsson to score the 20,000 Premier League Goal at 150/1 (Totesport)
Shane Long to score the 20,000 Premier League Goal at 80/1 (Totesport)
Charlie Adam to score the 20,000 Premier League Goal at 66/1 (Totesport)

Premier League Sunday - Early bird catches the worm

This Sunday really is 'super' as there are three televised Premier League games beginning with current Champions Manchester United & finishing off with this year's pace setters Manchester City, it's a feast of football & we plan on enjoying it by making some money at the same time as watching with these bets.

 (Sideways & backwards - Man United will hope to move forwards despite their problems in midfield)

In a very early kickoff at 12 o'clock Manchester United make the trip to the capital to face Queens Park Rangers & the general consensus is that these are troubling times for Alex Ferguson's team having dropped out of the Champions League & facing a real injury crisis, fortunately their current fixtures look kind & after dispatching of Wolves last week they can do the same to QPR this time around. United are the league's 2nd highest scorers behind City whereas QPR have only scored more than two others  in Wigan & West Brom, overall goal difference shows United have been 32 goals better than QPR in the 15 league games so far. Wayne Rooney & Nani both ended their recent goal droughts in style at Old Trafford last week & it's undeniable that when the Englishman is in form he's pretty good, Nani's virtually unstoppable when at his very best & QPR could be in some trouble in thsi one. QPR have been looking for a first choice frontman that will get them goals all year & look to have gone back to Heidar Helguson, he's done well in recent weeks but the 34 year old will not bother United at the back even without captain Nemanja Vidic. United should be able to win here & can cover the -1 goal handicap to bring up a nice price of 5/4.

 (The excellent Shay Given will be missing with a hamstring injury for the game against Liverpool)

To find a value bet in the Aston Villa v Liverpool game we've had a close look at the stats & it doesn't look like we should be expecting a thriller here with a close low scoring encounter on the cards. In 9 of Liverpool's last 10 league games there have been less than 3 goals & there have been just 31 golas in their 15 games so far, Villa have had three 0-0 draws & 7 draws in their games so far. Both teams have goalscoring problems but for different reasons with Villa struggling to service instinctive goalscorer Darren Bent with the chances he needs to feed off after the departures of Ashley Young & Stewart Downing. Downing is sure of a rough reception on his return & he's gaining notoriety after his big money transfer as he has scored no goals & has no assists, that is symptomatic of Liverpool's scoring problems, they do set chances up but fail to put them away. It remains highly improbable that Andy Carroll will ever justify his inflated £35m transfer fee with goals but Luis Suarez was prolific for Ajax with 81 goals in 110 league appearances & he should have scored more for the Reds considering the chances he's created for himself. Suarez isn't the most popular player around the country but he is a phenomenal talent & most likely to light up this game.

Both teams are difficult to beat as they've built their sides on rock solid defences with two top keepers in Shay Given & Pepe Reina, Liverpool have improved further now they've accepted that Jamie Carragher's past his best & Daniel Agger & Martin Skrtel have formed an excellent partnership, Jose Enrique has been excellent at left back & even Glen Johnson has actually been doing his job & defending. Villa have some of the most robust defenders around in their back four & Fabian Delph & Stilian Petrov do a great job of protecting them, it's a pity that manager Alex McLeish can't get the balance right between attack & defence as there is definitely a base to work with at Villa. Villa will be missing keeper Shay Given after he raced out to clear the ball & injured his hamstring but Brad Guzan is very good for a backup & he'll be well protected by his team mates. With this likely to be tight & two good defences it's tempting to go with under 2.5 goals but the bookies have noticed & priced accordingly, a better bet is the draw at odds of 5/2, those odds suggest it should happen once in every 3.5 games but Villa have drawn nearly half of their games & Liverpool a third of theirs.

(Man City's goalscorers have been lighting up the league)

The late game of the day is Manchester City hosting Arsenal in a clash between the league leaders & the league's most in form side with 7 wins & a draw in their last 8 games, it should be good & although the price is short it was easy to come up with the bet in this one. 8 of Man City's last 9 league games have had more than 2.5 goals & 9 of Arsenal's last 11. Both sides score (well van Persie does for Arsenal) but they also concede at the same time, City haven't a clean sheet in their last 8 in the league & although Arsenal have kept two in a row that was against Wigan & Everton, it'll be different against the juggernaut that is City. We'd edge with City if asked to pick a winner but the best bet is to bet on over 2.5 goals at 4/6 with Betfred, that way you can sit back & enjoy whilst the goals fly in.

Selections:
Manchester United to beat Queens Park Rangers with -1 goal on the handicap at 5/4 (Bet 365 & Skybet)
Aston Villa v Liverpool to draw at 5/2 (various)
Over 2.5 goals in Manchester City v Arsenal game at 4/6 (Betfred)

NFL Week 15 - Time's up for Tebow

Just 3 games left before the playoffs & the cream has risen to the top in just about every division, there's still plenty to play for & some big gamesin the coming weeks, we've got this round covered & hope to improve on a sorry bunch of picks last week. We went for under 38.5 total points in both the Texans v Bengals & 49ers v Cardinals games only for there to be 39 & 40 points in each respective game, that's frustrating but we can bounce back with some big winners this week & we think we've got some ace ones.

It's official, the Indianapolis Colts are the worst team in the league by a mile, they've lost all 13 games so far & have conceded the most points in the league to leave them with a league worst points difference (between what they've scored v opponents) of -198, without Peyton Manning they are dire so it makes little sense why the very decent Tennessee Titans are only 1 touchdown favourites to beat them. The Colts have been beaten by at least 7 points in their last 8 games & have only covered that spread in 2 games all season, in weeks 3 & 5, the Titans beat them 27-10 in the reverse fixture & have built up a respectable 7&6 record - it's not spectacular but it's light years ahead of Indianapolis.

(Chris Jonson can pay back a little bit of his $53m contract by scoring first against the Colts)

The Titans defense ranks 6th best in points conceded per game & their signing of Matt Hasselbeck from the Seahawks has worked out very nicely with him playing some quality football, unfortunately he damaged his hamstring in last week's game against the Saints & is doubtful here meaning that rookie Jake Locker may well be called upon. Obviously replacing your quarterback isn't ideal but Locker was the 8th pick overall in this year's draft & before his somewhat disappointing senior season in college was being predicted as a 1st overall pick so he has talent, he's seen a little action this year & already thrown 3 touchdowns & importantly no interceptions, his completion rate isn't great but if he doesn't give turnovers he's doing fine. The Titans should have the players to get the yards they need on the ground anyway with the highest earning running back in the league Chris Johnson looking to get some huge yards against the NFL's 3rd worst rushing defense. There's no doubt Johnson has been disappointing this year & he was poor against New Orleans last week but in the two games before he ran for 190 & 153 yards against the Buccaneers & Bills, they're bad defending the run & it seems he likes to bully these poorer sides, we think at 7/2 Johnson is a decent price to score the first TD. The Colts have problems all over the place, they rank 30th in sacks made, last in interceptions made, don't score points & now they've benched the season's starting QB Curtis Painter & are using perennial backup Dan Orlovsky as their passer, he's unlikely to see much joy in this one but he won't be as bad as their running game which is led by the incredibly ordinary Donald Brown. We can't see anything other than the Titans winning by at least a touchdown & should be backed with -6.5 points on the handicap, yes the Colts are at home & yes they will be desperate not to go to 0&14 but there's a reason they've lost every game so far - they are trash!

 (There won't be another miracle for Tim Tebow in this one against the Patriots)

Elsewhere the New England Patriots will have to overcome the divine inspiration that continues to guide the Tim Tebow led Denver Broncos to victory in the most unlikely circumstances week after week but we think they can do it by scoring points & forcing the Broncos to use the passing game, which is where they will crumble. The Broncos have won their last 6 games even though they scored over 20 points in just 2 of them & have won their last 4 games after trailing in the last 2 minutes of the game, often Tebow & the whole offense has been dreadful in the 1st half of games but the defense has been good enough all year to keep things close enough for them to drag it out of the fire. The problem for Denver here is that they are dealing with a truly elite offense in the Patriots & if they don't start firing until late on New England will already be out of reach, the Broncos have the most rushing yards & 2nd least passing but the Pats' weakness is in their secondary against the pass & Tebow & his receivers won't be good enough to expose it. Tebow's only completing 48.5% of his passes this year & his receivers are pretty average, Eric Decker is respectable but they miss Brandon Lloyd who was traded to the Rams, that means even when they want to throw the targets aren't there & it'll prove costly here.

(The phenomenal Rob Gronkowski & the rest of the Patriot's passing game can find success at Mile High against the Broncos)

The Patriots have been on fire in the passing game having racked up 30+ points in 9 of their 13 games & Brady has found tight end Rob Gronkowski 16 times in the end zone, that's very nearly half of the 33 touchdowns Brady has thrown yet receiver Wes Welker is the league's receiving leader with 100 receptions & 1,339 yards. Brady can also go to other tight end Aaron Hernandez & deep threat Deion Branch, he also has league veteran Chad Ochocinco if he needs him & it all means that they put up points wherever they are. Brady will need to be wary of the great pass rushers the Broncos have but he has pretty good protection & has such a quick release of the ball he's only been sacked 22 times all season which is excellent for such a passing team.. They were burned for 170 rushing yards against the Redskins last week but that was their worst of the season & Brady will put up big enough numbers again for the Patriots to win by more than 7.5 points to bring up the handicap bet at 10/11.

Selections:
Tennessee Titans to beat Indianapolis Colts with -6.5 points on the handicap at 10/11 (general)
Chris Johnson to score first Touchdown at 7/2 (general) in Titans v Colts game
New England Patriots to beat Denver Broncos with -7.5 points at 10/11 (general)