Thursday Night NFL - Broncos to frustrate unconvincing Jets

Week 11 in the NFL begins with a game between the New York Jets & the resurgent Denver Broncos at Mile High Stadium in Denver, the Jets are coming off a heavy home defeat to their main rivals the Patriots whilst Denver have won 3 of their last 4 with Tim Tebow now starting at quarterback after winning just 1 of their first 5 games. This should prove to be an interesting & different typ of game in what has become a pass dominated league with both sides being at their best with the running game.

(Lance Ball can make a case for the Broncos No 1. Running Back position with a big game against the Jets)

The Broncos managed to win at Arrowhead Stadium against the Chiefs even though they only completed two (yes just TWO) passes in the entire game & attempted just 8 in total, it goes to show the pragmatism of the coaching staff who have clearly realised, as has everybody else, Tim Tebow's weakness in the passing game. By placing Tebow in an option offense, that he so successfully mastered in college football, it gives him the best opportunity to get wins for the team & because it is s rarely seen in the professional game it may take some time for opposition defenses & coaching schemes to shut it down. The Broncos really made it clear that their plan was to focus on the run for the rest of the season when trading away the 2010 leading receiver in yards in Brandon Lloyd a month ago but Eric Decker has posted respectable yardage totals since even though he's had relatively few catches. Decker's averaging a very healthy 13.6 yards per catch & had a 56 yard touchdown for his only reception against Kansas City, his problem will be that now identified as Denver's leading receiver the Jets will place dominant cornerback Darrelle Revis covering him & he will become another receiver that gets lost on 'Revis Island'. The Broncos lost running back Knowshon Moreno for the season on Sunday & Willis McGahee also sat out the rest of the game after 4 carries but 3rd string back Lance Ball really stepped up carrying the ball 30 times for 96 yards, he will be looking to push for a starting position with another big night here. McGahee may well be back for the game but is still listed as questionable & it is safe to assume they won't want him running into walls of Jets players anyway so if they get down to the Jets goal line either Tebow himself or Ball are likely to try to run it in & backing Lance Ball at 6/4 to score the 1st touchdown at 12/1 & anytime at 6/4 looks worth an investment.

(The Jets' Darelle Revis (no.24) is one of the league's dominant cornerbacks)

The Jets were starting to look like they were getting their game together before the loss to the Patriots after decent wins against Miami, San Diego & Buffalo but tehy weren't the toughest sides & their weaknesses really showed against New England. Mark Sanchez really fails to impress as a quarterback as far as we're concerned not getting close to breaking the 60% pass completion rate in any of his season's so far, he has very decent receivers in Santonio Holmes & Plaxico Burress (in his comeback season after shooting himself in the leg & completing jail time) but Sanchez doesn't find them often enough with too many passes being overthrown. The Jets are basically a rushing team but their rush offense hasn't been able to get it going this year & are ranked 24th, they are ranked just 20th in passing yards also & are going to miss 2nd string back LaDainian Tomlinson here who provides an excellent threat in short yardage situations. The Jets will need to make the most of their possessions as the Broncos will eat up a lot of clock with the running game but with LT out they may struggle to convert 3rd downs & end up punting more often than they'd like. The Jets defense is pretty good, partly because they shut down a team's lead receiver with Revis & then force teams reliant on that one receiver to go to the run, thus making them predictable - that won't work here as the Broncos want to run it & pretty much only run it right from the start & this could be a frustrating night for Rex Ryan & his Jets on both sides of the ball.

The New York Jets are hot favourites for this one & they could win but it isn't easy to travel up to Denver, a mile above sea level & the Denver fans will be red hot for this one after getting the man they wanted at quarterback, Sanchez & his offense will have to try to cope with the noise & make the most of the opportunities they get & at best odds of 4/11 they offer no value at all. With the clock set to be kept running for long periods of time thanks to the running game that means that the game is likely to be low scoring meaning that no team should win by a large margin & the Broncos getting +6.5 points on the handicap looks generous & needs to be bet.

Selections:
Denver Broncos to beat New York Jets with +6.5 points at 10/11 with Sportingbet
Lance Ball to score the 1st touchdown at 12/1 (Boylesports) & to score a touchdown at anytime at 6/4 (Ladbrokes)

Euro 2012 Playoff second legs

Tuesday sees four games of massive importance on the international scene with the deciding legs of the playoff qualifiers for Euro 2012, 3 sides already hold distinct advantage from good wins in the 1st legs & that could impact on the way games play out, we're concentrating on the Portugal v Bosnia game that still hangs in the balance & the all but through Republic of Ireland who now host Estonia.

(Ronaldo can get the scoring going for Portugal v Bosnia)

The 1st leg of Portugal against Bosnia-Herzegovina tie was an excruciating affair on a very poor pitch, not helped by an unecessarily strict referee, the Bosnia coach's promise to attack was patently untrue & although Portugal will have been disappointed to have not got an away goal (it ended 0-0) they will feel they have the players to get this put away at home. Portugal always used to be held up along with Spain as a side that have perennially underachieved but now that Spain have well & truly put that behind them Portugal are now along with England the biggest European countries to continue to falter. When you look at the individuals in Portugal's lineup they are clearly a threat to anyone with some top defenders in Pepe, Fábio Coentrão & Bruno Alves & brilliant creative talent in Raul Meireles, Nani & the man who has a legitimate claim to be the best in the world - Cristiano Ronaldo (even over the much lauded Lionel Messi). Ronaldo really can take a game by the scruff of the neck & is continuing in irresistible form for Real Madrid this year with 13 goals in 11 games, 13/5 may seem short for him to score first but he really is that good & can come through when it counts. Bosnia hold a genuine attacking threat through their star player Edin Dzeko & vice captain & record capped midfielder Zvjezdan Misimović, they're pretty tough all round & did well to run France close in their qualifying group. That group wasn't the strongest though & they should be overmatched against Portugal who will want to win this by a clear margin to avoid potentially going out on away goals, backing Portugal with -1 goals on the handicap at 6/5 looks the way to go in this one.

 (Top winger Aidan McGeady can help Ireland impress in front of their home fans)

The Republic of Ireland are virtually in the finals after their superb 4-0 win away in Tallinn against Estonia & they will be feeling great for this one & will want to put on a show for the home fans. Estonia must know in their heart of hearts that this tie is done but if they are foolish enough to try to attack in this one they will find out how ruthless Ireland can be. Robbie Keane has turned down a request from L.A. Galaxy to sit out this game so that he can be more prepared for their MLS final & that shows that Ireland are taking this game seriously. They are strong at the back with the outstanding Shay Given protected by his Villa team mate Richard Dunne, Stephen Kelly & the ever improving Sean St. Ledger, Damian Duff & £9.5m winger Aidan McGeady offer Keane great support going forwards & with Estonia deflated after the weekend defeat they will want to put a vfew past them to sign off this qualifying campaign in style. Ireland's superiority to Estonia seems to have been underestimated here & the 2/5 for them to win looks as sure a bet as you'll get.

Selections:

Portugal to beat Bosnia-Herzegovina with -1 goals on the handicap at 6/5 (various)

Cristiano Ronaldo to score 1st goal at 13/5 (Paddy Power)

Republic of Ireland to beat Estonia at 2/5 (general)

Monday Night Football - Green Bay Packers to Pillage Vikings

Monday Night Football for week 10 sees a divisional game in the NFC North between reigning Super Bowl champions, the unbeaten Green Bay Packers & the Minnesota Vikings who have just two victories from their 8 games so far. The Vikings have got as close as any team to beating Green Bay this year when they led at half time in week 7 before losing by 6 points, the Packers are 13 point favourites for this one & although that seems a tough ask they can really give the Vikings a beating here at Lambeau Field.

(Christian Ponder & Adrian Peterson will need to perform miracles to keep the Vikings in this one)

Green Bay are a phenomenon scoring 34.4 points per game on average & easily leading the league in that category, quarterback Aaron Rodgers has a completion percentage of 72.5% & a passer rating of 129.1 & is on course to beat all sorts of season records. Rodgers has a great set of receivers with Greg Jennings being the leader with 723 receiving yards already & 6 touchdowns, Jermichael Finley & Jordy Nelson have 5 TDs apiece also, they are almost impossible to stop & won't be afraid of the Vikings defense that ranks 30th in the league in terms of passing yards given up per game. The Vikings aren't bad defending against the run but that won't matter here as Green Bay will attempt to pass them to death & when the Vikings don't expect it they'll unleash the useful James Starks on the ground.

 (Jermichael Finley can celebrate another touchdown for the Green Bay Packers)

The Vikings offense pretty much rests on the shoulders of exceptional running back Adrian Peterson who's run into the end zone 9 times this year. They started out with veteran Donovan McNabb at quarterback who came in to replace Brett Favre who eventually really retired in the off-season but McNabb is not the QB he was earlier in his career & they've benched him in favour of rookie & 12th overall draft pick Christian Ponder. Ponder made his first start in the game against the Packers in week 7 & threw a couple of scores but also got intercepted twice, he was serviceable against Carolina next time out but they will have had to do a lot of work in their bye week if he's going to cause Green Bay problems here. The Packers weakness is certainly their pass defense & they've been giving up monster yardage throughout the season but the Vikings don't possess the weapons to hurt them here, Visanthe Shiancoe is a decent receiver but when he's your best you know you're in trouble. So overall the Packers are likely to put up huge numbers as usual against the Vikings who are poor at defending the pass, the Vikings are in transition at quarterback & could struggle to score themselves, backing Green Bay to win by 13 points has to be the way to go as this one could be a massive blowout. The other best bet available is to back tight end Jermichael Finley to add to his 5 touchdowns already at Evens to score a touchdown at anytime, the Packers don't tend to run the ball in & he will be number one choice when it comes to short & goal situations.

Selections:
Green Bay Packers to beat Minnesota Vikings with -13 points at 20/21 (Ladbrokes)
Jermichael Finley to score a touchdown at anytime at Evens (Skybet & Coral)

NFL Week 10 - Rams to give Browns the Blues

It's week 10 of the season & we're getting close to the point where some teams have already qualified for the playoffs, unbeaten Green Bay & NFC West trailblazers the San Francisco 49ers look as though they have spots in the bag but the top spots in the other 6 divisions are very much up for grabs. With only 16 games in the regular season every game has a real impact on the playoff picture but 3 seem to have particular importance this week with New England at the Jets, New Orleans at Atlanta & Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, we're taking a close look at the Saints v Falcons game plus the clash between strugglers St Louis & Cleveland.

 (The St Louis Rams can exploit the Cleveland Browns rush defense)

The St Louis Rams have won only one of their opening 8 games but that was against one of the elite sides in the destructive New Orleans Saints & the matchup away at the Cleveland Browns seems very favourable to their strengths. Both sides are dreadful defending against the run with the Browns ranked 30th & the Rams the league worst at 32nd but the Browns have both of their running backs, their star player Peyton Hillis, & backup Montario Hardesty likely to be out of this game meaning they won't be able to exploit the Rams weakness. The Rams have a frightening running back in Steven Jackson who's rushed for over 1,000 yards for the past 6 seasons, he's averaged 83 yards a game this year & will be looking forwards to facing the Browns who are missing safeties T.J. Ward & Usama Young plus cornerback Dimitri Patterson meaning if he can get past the cardboard cut out defensive line he could break some huge plays by charging through the backup secondary. The Rams injury prone quarterback Sam Bradford is a big talent but doesn't have a great corps of receivers to throw to, although trade from the Broncos Brandon Lloyd is already looking a real positive & they will expect to take advantage of the Browns injury hit pass defense. Without Peyton Hillis the Browns offense really is lightweight & with their problems defending against the run they can face a backlash after the Rams unfortunate loss to the Cardinals last week, at 5/4 the Rams should be backed & Brandon Lloyd can be bet at 9/1 to score the 1st touchdown of the game & 6/4 to score anytime, he had 11 last year & can add to his solitary score this year.

The New Orleans Saints v Atlanta Falcons game really is a marquee matchup between some classy sides that will be battling all the way to the end of the season trying to secure the AFC South title. The Saints led by pass machine Drew Brees are the very definition of a high powered offense with multiple receivers all getting into the game & a very decent running back partnership in Darren Sproles & Pierre Thomas. As good as the Saints offense is they've still struggled when on the road, only having won at Jacksonville whilst losing to Tampa Bay & the Rams in the past 4 weeks, the Georgia Dome is one of the real strongholds in football with Atlanta rarely losing when hosting a game. The Falcons started out a little wobbly with losses away to Chicago & Tampa Bay in the first 3 weeks but since have only lost to the unstoppable Packers & their traded up for rookie Julio Jones is starting to show what a weapon he is as a wide receiver with him & Roddy White providing exceptional targets for Matt Ryan. They also have one of the league's top tight ends in Tony Gonzalez & Michael Turner is great in the running game with 7 touchdowns already. Atlanta have really improved defensively giving up just 40 points in their last 3 games, the defense face an acid test here against the Saints but Jonathan Babineaux & Ray Edwardscan really get after the Saints strong side offense whilst John Abraham will be looking to get after Brees from the weak side. The bookmakers can't pick a favourite for this one with both sides priced up at 10/11 but we think the home advantage & Atlanta's momentum swings this one to them in what should be a great game.

 (Matt Schaub knows how to run the ball & looks a top bet this week)

Elsewhere quarterback Matt Schaub looks to be overpriced at 9/1 to score a touchdown at anytime in the Texans game away at Tampa Bay, ok he's no Tim Tebow in terms of eunning it but he knows when to take off with two rushing TDs already for the year & with the Buccaneers defense looking out for superstar back Arian Foster he could get the opportunity for a little quarterback sneak. Other firms have Schaub priced a t 9/2 but Paddy Power offer the awesome 9/1 plus 50/1 for him to score the first touchdown of the game.

Selections:
St Louis Rams to beat Cleveland Browns at 5/4 (various)
Brandon Lloyd to score 1st Touchdown at 9/1 & score anytime at 6/4 (Ladbrokes)
Atlanta Falcons to beat New Orleans Saints at 10/11 (general)
Matt Schaub to score 1st Touchdown at 50/1 & to score anytime at 9/1 (Paddy Power) in Texans v Buccaneers game

Win a Load on the Paddy Power Gold Cup

The Paddy Power Gold Cup meeting is one of the national junt early season highlights & this year's feature race looks as competitive as ever, even with Paul Nicholl's running highly rated Poquelin meaning that 9 of the runners race from outside of the handicap. We've tried to find a value angle in the race along with a decent Listed contest on the all weather at Lingfield.

 (Loosen My Load has a great chance at odds of 16/1)

Starting with the Grade 3 handicap the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham it's clear that top weight Poquelin is a classy sort & this is his type of contest, having finished 2nd & 5th in the race for the last two years & having 5 chase wins at Cheltenham to his name. Poquelin was favourite for the Charlie Hall chase at Sandown last time out but could only finish 5th, that first run of the season may have been needed & he definitely has a chance here, the huge prices available seem more to do with Nicholls' other runner Mon Parrain being highly fancied & 7 pound claimer David Prichard being on board instead of Ruby Walsh, at 28/1 Poquelin offers such good value it's impossible to ignore.

The other horse we like in the contest is Henry De Bromhead's Loosen My Load, he was good enough to finish 3rd in the Jewson Novices Chase at the Festival, the 2nd that day, Wishfull Thinking, takes part here but has to carry 11 pounds more in comparison & that should allow Loosen My Load to turn that form around. He finished 2nd last time out when odds on but the winner there West With The Wind is a very progressive type & made the most of the tactical 4 runner affair. After Cheltenham Loosen My Load was good enough to finish 2nd in the Grade 1 Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse & is another that is overpriced at 16/1. Take advantage of the best prices for both Poquelin & Loosen My Load with sponsors Paddy Power or Bet365 who offer 5 places also meaning each way bets are the way to go.

Lingfield hosts the 6 furlong Listed Golden Rose Stakes & we're going for another horse at a huge price in David Evans' Norville. Rated at just 62 back in February this year & without a win until his 17th race Norville has won 6 times since then & has risen to a current rating of 97 in what has been an incredible rise, he's not won in the last 5 races but has been in some good contests including the Group 3 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh. On official ratings Secret Asset should pick this lot up & carry them but has run some stinkers & has the outside draw which mightn't suit his running style. Norville is also drawn wide but will appreciate the return to the all weather surface & is available at a huge 25/1.

Selections:
Cheltenham 2.35 - Poquelin each way at 28/1 (Paddy Power & Bet365 offering 5 places)
Cheltenham 2.35 - Loosen My Load each way at 16/1 (Paddy Power & Bet365 offering 5 places)
Lingfield 2.50 - Norville each way at 25/1 (Boylesports & Ladbrokes)

@likebuyingmoney Twitter followers tips - Week 2

Last week we asked our Twitter followers to send us their best bets for the then coming weekend, we received a range of responses. Below is a recap of those tips that we published, the right hand summarises the result of the bet.

Follower	Selection	Result
@MrMatthewReid	Ryan Lowe to score first for Wednesday vs Brentford. Not sure of the odds but he’s prolific and got off the mark last weekend.	Lowe completed 90 minutes for Sheffield Wednesday against Brentford in a game that finished 0-0 LOST
@GHorsfall	Oldham 21/20 to beat Bury side who lost several loanees with week and 4/5 wins came against bottom 7.	Bury claimed a win on the road beating Oldham 2-0 LOST
@profitbet	Exeter to beat Carlisle @ 2.72, Exeter form picking up	Nothing could seperate the sides with the game ending 0-0 LOST
@larryleeroy	QPR 0-4 Man City 13/1, PP offering money back if there are more than 4 goals. Form suggests City will score 4. QPR just don’t score!	Man City overcame QPR 3-2 at Loftus Road LOST (Although PP offered money back at 4+ goals were scored)
@jamespow	Don’t know the odds etc but I’ve got a feeling Fulham vs Spurs will be a high scoring affair on Sunday.	Fulham succumbed 3-1 to Spurs LOST
@Bet_Hunter	LSU -5.5 to beat Alabama in college football. Top 2 ranked teams	LSU triumphed but by 9 point to 6 LOST

Not a great start! Our ‘Twitter Followers best bets’ running total stands at -£5.00, from £1 stakes.

Due to the interest we have decided to continue asking our followers each week for their best bets and we will keep a running profit/loss of the tips. Detailed below are the selections for the weekend of the 12^th/13^th November.

@MrMatthewReid suggests Euro 2012 Play-off qualifiers 1st leg, all four game accumulators; either team not to score at 7/1 or under 2.5 goals at 9/2+.

@ShanePollard16 all your money on Spain, @jamespow agrees with Shane England to be outclassed by technically superior footballers who will beat us in 2^nd gear. England face World Champions Spain at Wembley and can be backed at 10/11.

@Bet_Hunter Sticks to what he knows and picks another college football match for his selection Alabama -17 to beat Mississippi State. Expect Bama to bounce back in a big way after their LSU loss. Alabama with the handicap are priced at 10/11 (various)

@Jugador1984 I think Wales have a good chance against Norway, is it #4winsonthetrot. Gary Speed's men beat Switzerland and Bulgaria in October and will look to continue to keep up their good form against the Euro 2012 qualifiers. The Welsh can be backed at 21/10 with Stan James.

@gray67lufc 3 for the w/end. Scunthorpe at 13/10, Barnet at 6/4 and Rotherham at 11/10 all odds against. These three are all in the FA Cup, we'll be taking them as singles.

@beazeley1973 Germany/Spain double. To add further value to Spain's price @beazeley1973 has doubled them up with Germany, together the double pays 9/4.

@sridout92 tips up Scotland, Ireland and Ronaldo anytimescorer patent for our purposes we'll take the bet as a treble only which pays 10.5/1.

Thanks again to all those who submitted their suggestions, we'll round up the results at the beginning of next weeks post.

To enter next week please send a tweet and include #likebuyingmoney with your best bet.